| VOL.3, NO.1 - MAY 2004
ISSN: 1540 - 1499 |
| |
| Fiscal Crisis: An Overview of Recent States’
Actions
|
| By Richard D. Young |
For
the past three years state governments have faced a
continuing fiscal crisis, one of the worst in decades.
Though the U.S. economy has recently shown signs of
improvement, the National Governors Association believes
that the current dire financial situation among most
states will likely continue into FY 2005, perhaps
longer.1
In
FY 2003 alone, for example, the cumulative revenue
shortfall among states was roughly $80 billion (NASBO,
2004, p. 5). The consequent impact on state
expenditures—services and programs—has been
described as “wrenching.” To balance budgets, many
states have been forced to cut or downsize critical
programs, leaving children, families, and those in need
of state services at considerable risk or hardship.
In
reaction to the ongoing crisis, states have done
everything conceivable to shore up the revenue gaps in
state budgets. Governors and legislatures have enacted
across-the-board cuts, laid off employees, reorganized
state agencies and programs, and tapped special
governmental funds or accounts. In several cases, taxes
and fees have been raised.
In
the following narrative, the general fiscal condition of
the states will be examined highlighting contemporary
revenue actions and spending. Next, some of the problems
contributing to the financial crisis among states will
be briefly discussed. This will be followed by a short
discussion on states’ spending priorities and budget
balancing strategies. Finally, some brief comments on
current state tax actions will be reviewed.
General
Fiscal Condition of the States
The
fiscal problems confronted by states today are ones that
have been experienced before. Most observers and experts
in state financial matters understand the cyclical
nature of state revenues (as well as expenditures). For
instance, the early 1980s was marked by a period of
acute revenue shortfalls, as was the case in the early
1990s. In intervening years, i.e., the mid-to-late 1980s
and 1990s, periods of significant revenue gains were
evidenced.2 Thus, this “up and down” in state
revenues reflects what experts designate as the classic,
recurrent “boom and bust” cycles.
In the section that follows, a few observations on the
current general fiscal condition of the states will be
made. This will include some remarks on revenue actions
and state spending.
The
Fiscal Crisis
The National Association of State Budget Officers (NASBO)
reports that “nearly every state was in a fiscal
crisis, of sorts, during FY 2003.” Shortfalls again
were estimated to total an astounding $80 billion. More
specifically, 31 states saw revenue collections fall
below projected estimates. Nine states experienced
modest revenue gains. Ten states witnessed revenue
collections that were “on target” for the fiscal
year. Overall, total state general fund revenues were 6%
lower than budgeted projections. More particularly,
personal income taxes were 9% lower, sales and use taxes
were 2.9% lower, and corporate income taxes were 3.7%
lower (NASBO, 2004, p. 5).3
There
are arguably several reasons or causes for this fiscal
crisis. According to McNichol (2003, April, p. 1), the
plunge in revenues resulted from several factors
including “the effects of the national economic
downturn and especially the decline of the stock market,
the continuing effects of state tax cuts of the 1990s,
the ongoing erosion of state tax bases due to their
failure to adapt to the changing U.S. economy, and the
effect of federal tax policies.”
In
FY 2004, it is anticipated that revenue growth will be,
relatively speaking, unexceptional (3 to 5%). According
to NASBO, as premised on enacted state budgets for the
current operational year, appropriations will increase
by 0.2% as compared to FY 2003. The reasons for this are
several, including:
•
Many states have underfunded pensions.
• Medicaid will continue to grow in the high
single-digit rates regardless of significant cuts.
• State tax systems are increasingly obsolete.
• Rainy day funds have been depleted.
• States have already shifted capital expenditures to
bond financing from general financing.
• States have already implemented the easy to
moderately difficult budget cuts including many one-time
reductions and revenue enhancements.
• The federal $20 billion relief package will end in
2004; and there will be little additional help from the
federal government due to an increasing federal budget
deficit.4
State
Spending
What can be said about spending during the current
fiscal crisis? The most recent Fiscal Survey of States
reports that state general fund expenditures have been
considerably reduced for both FY 2003 and FY 2004 (NGA/NASBO,
2003, December, p. ix). Growth in state spending in FY
2003 was only 0.6% higher than it was in FY 2002. Based
on FY 2003 appropriation acts, expenditures are
anticipated to increase a mere 0.2% over FY 2004,
representing the most nominal increase in the past 25
years. These minimal increases in state spending stand
out particularly when compared to the 8.3% increase,
which occurred in FY 2001 over FY 2000, and the 7.2%
increase that transpired from FY 1999 to FY 2000.
In
FY 2003, state spending “stopgap measures” ran the
gamut in order to contend with the burgeoning fiscal
crisis. Expenditures, by and large, included sizeable
cutbacks in state agency and program budgets (especially
administrative costs), draws of surplus and reserve
funds, and reductions in workforce by various methods.
According to The Fiscal Survey of States, other findings
with regard to spending included:
•
In FY 2003, 21 states had negative general fund spending
compared to the previous year. (In FY 2004, 13 states
had enacted negative growth budgets.)
• Forty states reduced FY 2003 enacted budgets by
$11.8 billion after they were passed—two states more
than the previous year. (Eight states, as of December
2003, have reduced their enacted budgets by $2 billion
in FY 2004).
• States continue to rely heavily on cutbacks in
spending to balance budgets. In FY 2003, this includes
across-the-board cuts (32 states), use of rainy day
funds (25 states), employee reductions (16 states), use
of early retirement schemes (13 states), and various
other spending/cutback strategies.
• Medicaid spending increased by 9.3% in FY 2003.
(Thirty-two states are assuming shortfalls will occur at
the close of FY 2004).
• The number of FTE’s (full-time equivalent
positions) decreased by 0.9% in FY 2003. (Based on
appropriations for FY 2004, FTE’s are expected to
decrease by an additional 2.8%). (NGA/NASBO, 2003,
December, p. ix).
State
Revenues
Though considered some negligible progress from FY 2003,
state tax revenue growth in FY 2004 has been described
by experts as “stagnant.” The reasons again are
familiar ones. Economic recovery, on the whole, has been
slow. Outsourcing of jobs has contributed heavily to
unemployment. Retail sales have languished, though there
have been recent signs of marked improvement in certain
instances. Production of durable goods has been flat.
And so on.
Despite
the implementation of expenditure control strategies and
other measures, 36 states passed legislation increasing
taxes and fees for FY 2004. These increases totaled $9.6
billion.5 Sales taxes were increased by $2.6 billion,
and personal income taxes by $2.3 billion. “Fees”
were generously increased as well to offset the FY 2004
fiscal crisis amounting to slightly more than $1.8
billion.
Ohio
raised its sales tax, for example, by 1% for two years.
Twelve other states increased their sales taxes, either
permanently or for a specified duration. Nine states
increased their personal income taxes. The greatest
enhancement was by the State of New York. Though a
temporary measure, the Empire state is expected to raise
$1.4 billion for FY 2004. And finally, eight states
increased their corporate taxes with the expectation of
a cumulative total of $601 million. (NGA/NASBO, 2003,
December, p. 11).
It
should be noted that large tax hikes were avoided where
possible for political reasons. Many tax hikes were
associated with “sin” taxes such as cigarette taxes,
liquor taxes, and those involving gambling (e.g., state
lotteries).
Problems
Contributing to the Fiscal Crisis Among States
No
one problem can be linked to the present fiscal crisis
among states. Experts and observers alike agree that the
U.S. economy is the main culprit. But there are
contributing or ancillary reasons that have adversely
affected state revenues and expenditures. Some of these
include revenue estimation uncertainty, expenditure
uncertainty, the negative impact of federal policy and
actions, an array of exigent court decisions, costly
annualizations, the adoption of adverse or ill-conceived
state tax policies, and poor budgeting practices. The
discussion which follows touches on each of these
contributory problems.
Revenue
Projection Inaccuracy
Revenue estimation is an inexact science despite its
rigorous and systematic methods and applications. The
fluctuations in the market place cannot be entirely
foreseen, even based on the best data and use of the
best estimating models. Economists, budgeters, and
elected officials are abundantly aware of this fact. The
bottom line is that too many uncertainties exist. This
is especially true at the national level and even more
so, experts say, at the state level.6
Further,
in most cases, sales tax revenues contribute to a large
share of states’ general funds (usually a third).
Projecting accurately revenue from sale taxes is more
difficult than estimating, for example, personal income
and corporate tax revenues. This is obviously due to the
changeableness or volatility of the market place, i.e.,
supply and demand. Hence, sales tax predictability is a
major culprit of revenue projection inaccuracy.
According
to experts, emphasis should be placed on improving
revenue estimation by continuously reviewing and
verifying data and methods. It is suggested that state
forecasters should be proactive and compare other
states’ estimate accuracies and the forecasting
systems they employ (NASBO, 2004, p. 8).
Expenditure
Uncertainty
Estimated or budgeted expenditures are also, in some
cases, difficult to pinpoint. If during the budgeted
year expenditures exceed expectations, state governments
must find ways to close the gap(s). One specific example
of this, which has contributed much recently to the
fiscal crunch that states find themselves in, is
Medicaid.7 Medicaid is the U.S.’s largest public
health insurance program for the poor. It is jointly
funded by federal and state governments.
Medicaid
costs have exceeded expenditure projections in many
states. The unprecedented rise in the costs of
prescription drugs, diagnostic activities, and medical
treatment have been the main causes.8 In FY 2001, for
instance, the states’ contribution to Medicaid
escalated by 10.6%, equating to a $4.4 billion jump
above states’ budgeted estimates. In FY 2002, Medicaid
grew by 13.6% and exceeded budgeted estimates by $2.8
billion.9
The
Impact of Federal Tax Policy, Sending, and Mandates
Federal tax policy, spending, and mandates can cause
ripple effects on state revenues and expenditures. In
many instances these ripple effects can and do have
negative consequences for states. First consider the
impact of federal tax policy on states.
The
vast majority of state tax codes are closely linked with
federal income laws. Many states, like that of South
Carolina, configure their personal income tax on federal
adjusted income. In some cases, states calculate their
personal income taxes as a percentage of federal income
tax liability. As such, any adjustments to federal tax
policy or law can “automatically” affect state
personal income tax and their resultant revenues (NASBO,
2004, p. 9). For example, the phase-out of the federal
estate tax will cost several states an estimated $4
billion by the end of the year 2005.
Federal
spending too impacts states—their revenues and
spending. In FY 2001, federal grants and other U.S.
financial aid to states amounted to almost 29% of all
state spending. Two problems contributing to federal
assistance to states are spending cycles and diminishing
state allotments. First, the federal fiscal year begins
in October, while most states begin their fiscal year in
July. Thus, state budgeters must estimate or “guess”
as to the amount of federal revenue expected. This
creates uncertainties and often shortages in federal aid
result. Second, with federal spending increasingly
concentrated on national security and defense, fewer
federal dollars are expected to be allotted to states.
Lastly,
unfunded federal mandates cost states billions of
dollars each year. While the Congressional Budget Office
is required to identify any unfunded federal mandates
above $58 billion, still federal laws are passed with
price tags that are unmet, in part or whole, by federal
dollars. This is especially true with regard to mandates
pertaining to education and election laws (NASBO, 2004,
p. 9).
Court
Decisions, Voter Referenda, and Catastrophic Occurrences
Three separate and distinct areas have, on some
occasions, contributed to the current fiscal crisis
among states. These areas include unpredictable court
decisions, voter decisions, and “disastrous events.”
Federal
and state court decisions often impact, in some way,
either state revenues or spending. Many court cases
involve questions of legality as to state tax codes and
taxpayer compliance. A “negative” decision of the
judiciary as relates to the tax code (or state
regulations), for instance, can be costly to state
government. Further, court decisions are not uncommon
with regard to legal issues pertaining to “the
treatment of corporate income, taxation of out-of-state
firms or businesses, educational funding (e.g.,
questions of equity), and state costs associated with
care for the disabled or mentally ill” (NASBO, 2004,
p. 10). In all these cases, state budgets may be
adversely affected.
A
number of states permit voter initiatives and referenda.
California, for example, is a state that has experienced
serious budget woes, and in a few cases, voter
initiatives have been contributory, directly or
indirectly, to these fiscal problems. A recent
illustration of a voter initiative and its affect on
state costs occurred in Florida. Voters approved an
initiative reducing K-12 class size. This obviously cost
the State of Florida more money for teachers, classroom
facilities, etc. The result was that the budget was out
of balance by several millions of dollars.
States
and their finances are affected as well by calamitous
events such as those associated with terrorism, like New
York’s September 11th aftermath, and natural disasters
like damage caused by hurricanes (e.g., Hugo, Andrew,
and Fran). Hurricane Fran in 1996, for example, cost
three states (mostly North Carolina) some $3.4 billion.10
Annualizations
Annualizations limit the fiscal discretion of the
governor, the legislature, and budgeters. Annualizations
are defined as recurring items currently funded with
non-recurring dollars or capital items with multi-year
funding requirements. Annualizations also can be items
resulting in the loss of revenue, or items partially
funded in one fiscal year which must be fully funded the
next fiscal year (Young, 2000, p. 53).
Annualizations
have been problematic for a number of states,
particularly South Carolina, New York, Oklahoma,
Illinois, and California. For example, the South
Carolina executive budget for FY 2005 proposed a
reduction of one-time expenditures to $144 million. This
is a substantial improvement from FY 2000. Then
annualizations for the Palmetto state were $564 million.
Over the past four years, South Carolina’s governor
and the legislature have worked diligently to lower the
cost of annualizations; thus, diminishing—to the
extent possible—the impact of the current $350 million
funding gap.
Incremental
Tax Policies
The criteria for a “good” tax system are much
discussed in the literature. The most significant
criteria are efficiency and equity. Other criteria
include balance, stability (as regards both “policy”
and “revenue”) and ease of compliance.11
Unfortunately,
it is commonly acknowledged that state tax laws and
regulations are often altered without the benefit of a
thorough analysis using the above criteria. The outcome
is usually one that skews the tax code in favor of
special interests leaving state revenue coffers short
changed. Sales tax exemptions on certain products and
especially services are illustrative of this phenomenon.
Another source of frequent reductions in revenue, due to
special interests, are corporate incentives and perks
that are used to entice corporations and businesses to
headquarter or locate within state borders. Generally,
the political popularity of tax reductions, of any sort,
have consistently eroded tax bases and, in many cases,
caused imbalances in state tax structures. The long-term
results of ill-conceived and incremental tax changes to
state law have invariably contributed to the fiscal
crisis that many states are now confronting.
Inadequate
Budget Practices
Inadequate, dated state budgeting methods and practices
have long been pointed to as important causes of both
past and present fiscal crises. In part, this inadequacy
in many states is caused by what experts term “the
archaic line-item approach” to budgeting (Young, 2001,
pp. 45-46). This budget approach is typically recognized
as one that deals strictly with inputs or resources
required to operate and maintain governmental entities
and their services. It lists, line-by-line, proposed
expenditures, such as personnel, equipment and supplies.
This itemization may be quite detailed and list actual
position allocations and budgeted objects-of-expenditure
such as telephone costs, travel, computers, vehicles,
postage, books, etc. (Young, 2001, p. 18).
In
conjunction with this simplistic and dated budgeting
approach is the problem of “incrementalism.” Incrementalism is the approach of making budget
decisions, using limited information and data, within
the scope of “new monies” only (i.e., within the
new, additional funds that are projected above the
previous year’s appropriated revenue base). In this
way, the previous year’s budget serves as a starting
point and remains essentially unexamined for budgeting
purposes. Budget focus and decisions are therefore
confined to narrow, marginal budget decisions within the
framework of circumscribed new dollars (Young, 2001, pp.
10-11).
The
inadequacies here, so say many budget experts, are
plain. Information and data on state agency or
programmatic goals and objectives, performance
(efficiency and effectiveness), and related statistical
trends are nonexistent. Further, attention and
decision-making are given only to the base budget. Given
these inadequacies, budgeting methods and practices are,
by their very nature, recognized as being
“causative” to the fiscal woes of states. The
solution, according to some specialists in budgeting
techniques, appears to be the development and use of
performance-based budgeting methods and zero-base
techniques.
Spending
Priorities
The literature identifies four major spending areas
among the states. These spending areas are
“priority” spending areas for states and their costs
have accelerated significantly for the past several
years. They include elementary and secondary (K-12)
education, higher education, Medicaid, and corrections.
K-12
Spending
State
governments experienced momentous growth in educational
spending from FY 1996 through FY 2001. According to the
Education Commission on States, per student spending for
this period exceeded inflation by 13%. However, in FY
2001, by comparison, the fiscal crisis among states
began to impact K-12 spending, marking a measurable
decline in educational spending over FY 2002 and FY
2003.12
For
example, though the National Conference of State
Legislatures predicted a 4.8% increase in educational
spending for FY 2003, because of state revenue
shortfalls, 27 states cut their education budgets to
close budget gaps. California cut K-12 spending by $2.4
billion, and many school districts in Oregon had to
reduce their school year up to 25 days, as was the case
in the City of Portland. Other states’ actions as
regards educational spending countermeasures included:
Michigan, $127 million in cuts; Minnesota, $26.9 million
in cuts; Washington, $545 million in cuts over two
years; Connecticut, a 5% reduction in education
spending; Georgia, three rounds of cuts (Griffith, 2004,
March, p. 1).
More
recently, however, there is some encouraging news. “In
a survey of the 16 states comprising the Southern
Regional Education Board, it was discovered that 14 have
enacted budgets that have increased spending for K-12.
Specifically, 11 states have made increases under 3%,
and three states expect increases greater than 5%.”13
For
FY 2004, according to NASBO, overall state general fund
spending is expected to grow 1.5%. With educational
earmarked funds expected to grow 5%, the total state
growth for educational spending is anticipated to be
1.9% at the conclusion of FY 2004.
Higher
Education
State-supported institutions of higher learning have
especially suffered from the cyclical economic downturns
of recent years. With fewer state revenues available,
and the increasing (and competing) demands of K-12
public education and Medicaid costs, state colleges and
universities have invariably relied on hefty tuition
increases. With roughly 75% of all college students in
the U.S. attending public higher-education institutions,
the Brookings Institution has called the effects
“profound” (Kane & Orszag, 2003, September, p.
1).
In
FY 2002, for example, state government spending on
higher education was the third largest expenditure
area/category. State funds utilized for higher education
purposes totaled $106.1 billion, representing
approximately 14% of all total state monies spent (Boyd,
2002, October, p. 2). “Additionally, more than 25
state colleges or university systems increased their
tuition between 10 and 20%. Four colleges raised tuition
by more than 30%, according to a recent survey conducted
in the fall of 2003 by the National Association of State
Universities and Land-Grant Colleges.”14
Even
though a trend of sharp tuition increases has marked the
fiscal crisis and its impact on public higher education,
state appropriations have not—in many cases—filled
the severe funding gaps. Thus, since the late 1970s
there has been a decline in public higher education
spending per FTE student as compared to private
institutions. For instance, figures indicate the ratio
dropped from 70% to near 58% in 1996. Much of the
decline occurred in the early 1980s, the recession of
the early 1990s, and over the past couple of years.
The
results of such occurrences have of course affected the
quality of public higher education. Public institutions
have lost many superior academic students to private
colleges and universities. Faculty salaries have
declined at public institutions. Classes and academic
programs have been cut back or cancelled. A survey of
faculty members at research and doctoral institutions of
higher learning by the U.S. Department of Education,
found that it was commonly believed that public colleges
and universities were generally in a state of decline
(Kane & Orszag, 2003, September, p. 5).
Medicaid
Spending
Medicaid costs have increased considerably over the past
few years, contributing to the recent fiscal crisis
among states. In FY 2002, for example, total
expenditures for Medicaid were $258.2 billion. The state
share of this total was $111.6 billion. This was a 12.8%
increase over the previous year. Medicaid spending for
FY 2003 increased by an additional 9.3%.
Percentage-wise, Medicaid costs—on the
average—comprise about 20% of all state general funds
(NGA/NASBO, 2003, December, p. 4).
FY
2004 Medicaid budgets show an expected increase of 4.6%.
Experts believe generally, like the previous years’
estimates, that this percentage is likely to be too low
by fiscal year’s end. According to the NGA/NASBO
(2003, December, p. 5) most recent fiscal survey of
states, 32 states already “assume a shortfall in their
FY 2004 Medicaid appropriations.”
In
FY 2003, Medicaid provided health insurance to 40.4
million low-income persons. Medicaid expenditures
covered, for example, institutional and nursing home
care, hospital care, prescription drugs, health and
community care, and physicians and other medical
practitioners. Like private health insurance costs,
Medicaid expenditures are increasing significantly in
line with rising general health care costs nationwide.
Cost-containment
measures taken by states over the past three years,
however, have helped temper Medicaid expenses a bit.
Some of the measures include reducing or freezing
provider payments, requiring prior authorization for
drugs or using preferred drug lists, restricting
Medicaid eligibility, reducing benefits, and increasing
co-payments. (NGA/NASBO, 2003, December, p. 6).
Corrections
Spending
The National Conference of State Legislatures reports
that state correctional facilities held 708,000
prisoners in 1990. By 2000, the state inmate population
had increased by an additional 537,000 persons or 76%.
Over a period of a decade (1992-2002), state governments
built new correctional facilities totaling 742,000
additional beds.15
Corrections’
spending was the second fastest growth area for state
general funds during the 1990s. Much of this resulted
from two factors: 1) state adoption of “three
strike” laws, and 2) the approval of “truth in
sentencing” laws.16 In short, these laws lengthened
sentences and the results have been significant
increases in state prisoners, and requirements for
additional correctional spending.
Between
1985 and 2000, state correctional spending increased
from $10.7 billion to slightly more than $20 billion.
Overall, depending on the state, spending on corrections
doubled and in some cases tripled during this 15-year
period. States with high crime rates were disposed to
have higher spending requirements on correctional needs.
In 1999, for example, this included the states of
California, Alaska, and Delaware (U.S. Dept. of Justice,
2002, February, p. 6). These states, and others by a
lesser degree, have seen correctional spending
consistently add to their fiscal crisis, especially in
fiscal years 2001 and 2002.
Budget
Stopgap Measures and Other Remedies
States have done virtually everything that can be
reasonably done to contend with the many budget deficits
which have occurred over the past two or three years.
There have been targeted budget cuts and
across-the-board cuts. Rainy day or reserve funds have
been tapped. Cigarette taxes have been raised, some
considerably so. Tobacco settlement money has been
spent. The restructuring of state agencies and programs
has been utilized for purposes of cost savings and
spending reductions. In essence, state governments
closed the budget gaps as best they could, at least for
the short-term, with expectations that the future will
be brighter.
Cut
Spending
To contend with the recent fiscal crisis, states have
regularly cut spending, either by targeted cuts or
across-the-board cuts. While targeted cuts have honed in
on low-priority programs primarily (and reluctantly, on
occasion, high priority programs as well, such as
education), across-the-board cuts are the norm.
Across-the-board cuts are, according to experts and
practitioners alike, the simplest and easiest way to
reduce budget deficits. This is especially true when
there is little time or resources available to make
targeted cuts. Still, one benefit of across-the-board
cuts is that state agencies are better informed to cut
where they think best, as opposed to governors and
legislators, who often lack the depth of information
necessary to cut or reduce spending for specific
programs.
Statistically,
what are states’ actions with regard to balancing
budgets using cuts? For FY 2004, for example, 31 states
have cut spending. Across-the-board cuts were utilized
by 14 states. Minnesota imposed a 15% spending cut among
its state agencies, while at the other spectrum, Texas
required a “modest” cut of 1.5% across-the-board. In
addition to these broad budget cuts, some targeting of
cuts was undertaken by a number of states. These
included spending cuts to Medicaid, K-12 expenditures,
and corrections (NCSL, 2003, p. 6.).
Tap
Existing Special Funds
State governments generally have a number of special funds dedicated
for specific purposes. There are often special funds,
for instance, for emergency and insurance needs,
maintenance purposes, and “trust funds” to meet
earmarked conservation and transportation requirements.
Recent data, for FY 2004, indicate that 29 states tapped
special or dedicated funds to help offset budget
shortfalls.
Florida
drew on a number of special funds generating $726.8
million. Maryland found $328.7 million from special
sources, as did Iowa, which transferred fund balances
and interest earnings amounting to approximately $52
million. Other states tapping special funds include
South Carolina ($40.1 million), Minnesota ($23 million),
and Hawaii ($75 million). (NCSL, 2003, p. 6).
Initiate
Work Force Reductions, Caps, and Freezes
The fiscal crisis among states has spurred many state
governments to undertake measures that affect state
employment and workers. These workforce cost reduction
measures are logical given that a large portion of state
spending goes for employee salaries and benefits. Hence,
many state governments have laid off workers, capped
employment, instated hiring freezes, reduced or
eliminated unfilled FTE positions, and provided early
retirement incentives.
Twenty-three
states have taken some workforce measure(s), in FY 2004,
to deal with the prevailing financial crisis. By way of
illustration, 11 states laid off workers, three of which
affected 1,000-plus state employees. Eleven states
implemented hiring freezes. Further, worker salaries
were frozen in nine states and four states made use of
employee furloughs (NCSL, 2003, p. 6).
Draw
on Rainy Day Funds
Currently, 47 states have established “rainy day”
funds. These stabilization funds are set-aside reserves
or accounts that are used to offset budget shortfalls.
The median rainy day funds equal about 4.5% of a
state’s general fund revenue for the previous fiscal
year.
In the mid-to-late 1990s, during the economic growth
surge, rainy day reserves appreciated to their highest
levels in 20 years. At the conclusion of FY 2000, states
total balances, which included general fund and rainy
day balances, totaled nearly $50 billion. However, over
FY 2001 and FY 2002, many states were forced to tap
their rainy day funds to contend with the marked revenue
deficits.17
In
FY 2004, the number of states utilizing rainy day
reserves “has dropped” to 13 states. The causes are
generally two-fold. First, states have reduced budget
balances considerably through other stopgap measures,
thus reducing the necessity of tapping reserves. Second,
in some cases, rainy day funds have simply been depleted
over the past two fiscal years. Arizona, Oklahoma, and
Idaho are states that have tapped out their reserves.
Texas, for example, completely depleted its rainy day
fund amounting to $811 million. Other states have made
substantial withdrawals. These states include Alaska
($479.2 million), Indiana ($214 million), Florida
($143.5 million), and Georgia ($143 million). (NCSL,
2003, p. 7).
Use
Tobacco Settlement Funds
Forty-six states settled their lawsuits against tobacco companies to
recoup costs associated with related health care costs
in late 1998.18 These settlements required that tobacco
companies make annual financial allotments to states in
perpetuity. Total settlements to states for the first 25
years are expected to be approximately $246 billion.19
Though
states were originally intent on spending tobacco
settlement funds to redress health costs associated with
the ills of smoking, some states have tapped the tobacco
settlement funds for other purposes, mainly as stopgap
measures to deal with the recent deficit situation. For
example, “only eight states are funding tobacco
prevention programs at even half the minimum levels
recommended by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention (CDC). Thirty-three states are spending less
than half the CDC’s recommended minimum amount.
Another five states –Michigan, Missouri, New
Hampshire, South Carolina, and Tennessee—and the
District of Columbia allocate no significant state funds
for tobacco-use prevention or health costs.”20
Restructure
Government
The reorganization of state agencies and programs can
eliminate duplication of effort, overlap, and
governmental waste. In short, reorganization of state
government can save significant monies. Many states have
recently initiated restructuring measures to help
diminish the current fiscal crisis. West Virginia, for
instance, has proposed streamlining a maze of 257
distinct programs serving children and families. West
Virginia has also proposed merging two IT agencies that
will result in saving an estimated $1 million.21
Similarly, Texas state representative David Swinford
introduced a 400-page restructuring bill during the 2003
legislative session that was expected to aid in
“plugging the state’s $10 billion deficit.”22
Additionally, California’s new governor, Arnold
Schwarzenegger, has proposed a comprehensive
reorganization plan to reduce state spending and improve
accountability.23
South
Carolina’s governor, Mark Sanford, has also
recommended a broad-based restructuring of state
government. Governor Sanford’s FY 2005 budget proposes
a 17% reduction in the number of state agencies (from 87
to 72), with the potential of millions of dollars in
savings (roughly $26 million).
Sell
Government Assets or Privatize
According to the American Legislative Exchange Council
and Manhattan Institute for Policy Research, “hundreds
of billions of dollars’ worth of state-owned
enterprises and assets have been sold or leased to the
private sector” (Eggers, 2002, July, p. 7). This
includes state surplus lands and facilities, ports, and
stadiums. The result has been a cost-savings to
taxpayers and a viable way to deal with state deficits.
Further,
based on research by the noted Reason Foundation,24
though somewhat dated, cities and states have over $226
billion in assets which could be sold. “Selling off or
leasing state-owned assets allows antiquated or dormant
infrastructure to be cashed in for much needed state
spending” (Eggers, 2002, July, p. 7). In the 1990s,
Michigan sold its accident fund, and New York sold its
port authority. The State of California sold surplus
property, land and facilities, in the 1990s as well,
earning some $200 million.
The
most-productive privatization efforts by states have
been the sale of workers’ compensation funds.
Michigan, as mentioned above, sold its workers’
compensation (accident) fund in 1993 to Blue Cross/Blue
Shield for $255 million. Nevada is another state which
privatized its workers’ compensation fund (Eggers,
2002, July, p. 7).
Eliminate
or Cutback Poor Performing Units
Experts in state budgeting and financial matters have
argued in modern times that state appropriations should
be based on performance. In this respect, state agencies
and programs that have good or excellent performance
records, that demonstrate positive outcomes or results,
should be given priority in funding decisions. Those
governmental units or programs that perform less than
satisfactory should have their funding reduced or
possibly eliminated altogether. During a period of
fiscal shortfalls, experts believe that states should
rely on performance-based budget systems in order to
ensure that successful agencies and programs receive the
lion’s share of limited state revenues.
Generally
speaking, experts define a performance budget as one
that identifies programmatic activities and then
allocates or “links” funds to these activities in
the form of per unit measurements. Additionally,
performance budgets often gauge the accomplishment of
program objectives. This first measurement or “cost
per units” of activities or services relates to what
is called program “productivity” or
“efficiency.” The latter measurement, the meeting of
program objectives, is commonly termed
“effectiveness.”
Most
states are actively involved, to one extent or another,
in reforming their budgeting procedures and practices.
Budgeting experts have recognized several of these
states as model approaches in the utilization of
performance-based budgets. Those frequently mentioned
are Texas, Oregon, Minnesota, Virginia, and Florida.
More recently, Iowa and Missouri have been given high
marks in their efforts at improving state budgeting
methods.
Pay
for Performance
Most compensation systems for state employees are
outdated and pay employees strictly with relation to
predetermined pay (“class and comp”) scales. Pay
increases are generally across-the-board increments,
step-increases, COLAs, and are sometimes based on salary
levels or seniority. Though pay for performance is
occasionally witnessed among progressive states, still
there is very little attention in the main given to
rewarding excellence of performance among industrious
and innovative state workers.
Contrarily,
pay for performance is “a given” in the private
sector. Employees realize that their salaries are driven
by performing well, contributing to the company’s
sales, and providing quality, needed products and
services. Private companies and businesses create a
culture of rewards and incentives for employees to
perform their jobs with emphasis on efficiency,
effectiveness, and productivity.
Experts
in public administration recommend that state pay
systems be directly tied to performance. Performance
evaluation or appraisal instruments should be developed
that encourage and recompense state workers who achieve
agency or programmatic goals and objectives, are
attentive to customer or client needs, and exceed stated
performance standards. In this way, so believe experts,
state governments can attain maximum results, save
money, and ultimately diminish the impact of cyclical
fiscal downturns.
Use
Technology to Reduce Overhead
Experts appear, on the whole, to be certain that states
which invest in IT equipment and processes can realize
positive tangible results—cost-savings, and more
accessible and convenient state services. Reasons for
this are plentiful and demonstrable in the private
sector. It is reported that Cisco systems is profiting
by some $825 million annually through e-commerce
savings. Also, IBM claims to save $1 billion annually by
using the Internet to conduct much of its business
affairs (Eggers, 2002, July, p. 13).
Though
such savings are more difficult to pinpoint in IT
applications for state government, some evidence exists
that confirms that IT can be
beneficial—financially—to cash-strapped states.
Kentucky, for example, has calculated that using IT
innovations, particularly for the provision of Web-based
services to the public, saves the state roughly $140
million a year. Such state-operated IT or Web-based
applications include the filing of tax returns, the
purchasing of permits, registering corporations,
procuring support equipment and supplies, and so on
(Eggers, 2002, July, p. 13).
Generally
speaking, in what ways can “e-government” save
states money? These would include 1) reducing paper and
printing costs, 2) getting better prices on goods and
services, 3) reducing workforce costs, 4) lowering
travel and training costs, 5) reducing processing costs,
and 6) reducing document storage requirements.
Tax
Actions
Data show that many states raised taxes and fees in FY
2003 as they had done so, under similar circumstances,
the previous fiscal year. Total new, additional revenue
from tax actions in FY 2003, affecting FY 2004 monies,
is expected to be nearly $7 billion. Add to this an
extra $3.7 billion raised in fees, and the grand total
is some $10.7 billion. This equates to a 1.3% boost over
the prior fiscal year (NSCL, 2003, p. 7).
With
42 states reporting to a recent survey by NCSL, Hawaii
was alone in cutting taxes by more than 1%. Conversely,
17 states increased their taxes by greater than a
percentage point. Four states—Idaho, New York, Ohio,
and Delaware—raised taxes by 5% or more. The largest
gain was realized by Alabama, which raised taxes overall
by 9%. Lastly, 24 states made little or no noteworthy
tax changes (NCSL, 2003, p. 7).
Personal
Income
Taxes Personal income taxes were raised in ten states.
Six states lowered their personal income taxes. The
State of New York raised personal income taxes most,
totaling $1.7 billion. More modest increases, relatively
speaking, were enacted by Arkansas ($56 million) and
similarly Maryland ($52 million). In the former case,
legislators added a 3% surcharge to income tax bills,
and in the latter, a change in income tax withholding
requirements netted an increase. Other adjustments to
personal income taxes netting increases to tax revenues
include:
•
North Carolina reduced the age requirements of a child
from 23 to 16 to qualify for the childcare credit.
• Virginia and Kentucky abolished deductions for
foreign earned income.
• Missouri eliminated the deduction for railroad
annuities and, additionally, taxed the casino winnings
of nonresidents (NCSL, 2003, p. 7).
With
regard to those states lowering personal income taxes,
for example, Hawaii cut $44 million by phasing in rate
reductions. Similarly, New Mexico lowered taxes by $17
million by beginning a five-year income tax reduction
process. And Montana decreased personal income taxes by
simply adjusting its tax rate tables.
Sales
and Use Taxes
To balance budgets, 17 states increased their sales
taxes, through varying adjustments in tax law, in FY
2003. These changes in sales and use taxes will affect
revenue for the current operating year (FY 2004). Those
states cutting sales taxes were four—Minnesota, Texas,
Georgia, and West Virginia.25
The
sales tax in Ohio was increased from 5% to 6% and is
expected to net roughly $1.4 billion. Other tax actions
affecting sales collections include:
• New York raised their general sales tax by one
quarter of a percent. New York also eliminated the sales
tax exemption on clothing for the next two years.
• North Carolina and Nebraska approved a continuation
of a temporary sales tax rate increase.
• Though no general sales tax is levied in Montana, it
did place a sales tax on lodging and car rentals.
• Rhode Island raised its sales taxes by 1% on food.
• Washington raised its sales tax on cars and trucks
by .3% (NCSL, 2003, p. 8).
Corporate
Taxes
Some states increased their corporate and business taxes
in anticipation of bringing in a cumulative or net $486
million. Specifically, eight states raised their
corporate taxes and four reduced them.
New
York raised its corporate taxes by $237 million. This
increase was atypical of recent tax actions in New York,
a state which has cut corporate taxes over the several
past years. Also, Delaware raised corporate taxes by $90
million by adjusting its franchise tax statutes.
Finally, corporate tax loopholes were closed in
Massachusetts and Illinois, while Ohio altered its legal
definition of a “business.” In all these cases, the
results were increased corporate revenues for the states
(NCSL, 2003, p. 8).
Those
states reducing corporate taxes were Florida, Georgia,
Washington, and Mississippi. Florida and Georgia made
the largest cuts. Florida enhanced its tax credit for
corporate contributions to scholarship funding
organizations. Georgia provided for additional tax
credits to corporations and businesses for job creation.
Other
Taxes
Several states made changes to miscellaneous other
taxes, such as those taxes associated with health care
providers, cigarette and tobacco, motor fuel, and
alcoholic beverages. The largest tax increases were
those related to cigarettes and tobacco, netting an
overall $642 million. In all, 15 states raised cigarette
taxes. Additionally, motor fuel taxes were increased by
$339 million. States raising fuel taxes were Maine,
Kansas, North Carolina, Ohio, Washington, and West
Virginia.
Health
care provider taxes were raised in eight states,
providing an additional net increase of $205 million.
Four states raised taxes on alcoholic beverages ($22
million). Other “miscellaneous” tax increases among
the states equal a total net increase of $557 million in
revenues for the current operating year (NCSL, 2003, p.
9).
Fees
Fee increases account for a sizeable gain in state
revenues ($2.6 billion). NCSL reports that in FY 2003,
30 states raised greater than 200 varying fees. By
comparison, FY 2002 witnessed 16 states increasing fees
for a total $962 million. No states reported
eliminations or reductions in fees.
Fee increases run the gamut. They include health care
fees, recreational fees, court fees, and motor vehicle
and license fees. For example, North Carolina augmented
fees for processing specific diagnostic tests at local
health departments. Alaska introduced fees on
winter-weather tires. Massachusetts increased fees on
taking state bar exams.
Conclusion
This
paper has examined briefly the fiscal crisis affecting
many states over the past three years. Of importance,
the general fiscal condition of the states was reviewed.
In FY 2003, for example, more than 60% of the states
experienced revenue shortfalls. The problems
contributing to these revenue shortfalls, as discussed,
include inaccurate revenue estimations, expenditure
uncertainty, the negative impact of some federal
policies, court decisions, annualizations, poor tax
policies, and inadequate budget practices.
Spending
priorities are also contributory and problematic.
Education spending needs continue to grow significantly
despite successive revenue deficits among many states.
Medicaid requirements have accelerated appreciably over
the past several years. Keeping up with Medicaid costs
has exacerbated the current economic and revenue
situations of states. And growing costs associated with
corrections and prison overcrowding have had their toll
on state revenue coffers.
Additionally, this paper has looked at the various
budget stopgap measures and other actions taken by
states to plug their revenue gaps. States have cut
spending, tapped reserve and special funds, implemented
workforce reductions, used tobacco settlement monies,
restructured governmental units, and sold government
assets. In some cases, taxes and fees have been raised.
Endnotes
1.
National Governors Association. Retrieved February
25, 2004 from http://www.nga.org/nga/legislativeUpdate/1,1169,C_ISSUE_BRIEF^D_6116,00.html.
2. In 1983 the average nominal increase in state
general funds was a dismal –0.7%; however, by the
end of 1985, significant improvement was already
being realized with a nominal increase of 10.2%. In
1993, the nominal increase in general funds was down
to 3.3%, but over the next eight years, the average
nominal increase rose to 8.3% (in FY 2001). Source:
National Governors Association and National
Association of State Budget Officers.
3. According to a report of the National Conference
of State Legislatures, “For nearly every state, FY
2003 was the second consecutive year of budget
problems. One of the most important indicators of
state fiscal conditions has been the decline in
state balances. For example, as states tapped
reserves to help close budget gaps, aggregate
year-end balances fell. They dropped 48% from FY
2002 to FY 2003, declining from $22.4 billion to
$11.6 billion for the 43 reporting states. The
aggregate balance combines general fund ending
balances with rainy day funds. Further, balances as
a percent of spending dropped. The $11.6 billion
represents 3.1% of FY 2003 general fund spending.
For the 43 reporting states, the balance at the end
of FY 2002 was 6.0%.” Retrieved February 25, 2004
from http://www.ncsl.org/programs/fiscal/presbta03.htm.
4. Retrieved February 25, 2004 from http://www.nga.org/nga/legislativeUpdate/1,1169,C_ISSUE_BRIEF%5ED_6116,00.html.
5. Two states reduced taxes by roughly $31 million.
6. Additionally, many state revenue estimation
models are based, to some degree, on national
economic forecasts. This practice, while pragmatic
and rational, does allow for certain nuances and
peculiarities of state economic activity to be
sometimes missed or misinterpreted, amplifying
errors in revenue projections. While state
forecasters usually take measures to compensate for
the particularities associated with individual state
economic conditions, still national data can skew or
distort projections.
7. Medicaid and its impact on state finances will be
discussed in greater detail later in this paper.
8. Health care costs have a substantial impact on
state budgets. Medicaid and other related spending,
on average, account for 30% of all state spending.
9. In FY 2004, Medicaid is expected to be the
largest growth item (at 4.6%) in state general fund
spending. Retrieved February 27, 2004 from http://www.ncsl.org/programs/fiscal/presbta03.htm.
10. Retrieved March 2, 2004 from http://www.cnn.com/SPECIALS/2002/hurricanes/.
11. For a complete discussion of these criteria and
their meanings see http://www.iopa.sc.edu/grs/LGRP/DOC/FinalReport.pdf,
pp. 7-10.
12. Education Commission of the States. Retrieved
March 4, 2004 at http://www.ecs.org/clearinghouse/41/32/4132.htm.
13. Ibid.
14. Retrieved March 8, 2004 from http://www.pbs.org/newshour/extra/features/july-dec03/tuition_9-15.pdf.
15. Retrieved March 9, 2004 from http://www.ncsl.org/programs/press/2003/pr03072390s.htm.
16. “Three strike” laws require the imposition
of life or long-term sentences. “Truth in
sentencing” laws generally require inmates to
serve at least 85% of their sentence.
17. Retrieved March 10, 2004 from www.cbpp.org/4-24-03sfp.htm.
18. Mississippi, Texas, Florida, and Minnesota had
reached individual settlements previously.
19. Retrieved March 10, 2004 from http://tobaccofreekids.org/reports/settlements/.
20. Retrieved March 10, 2004 from http://tobaccofreekids.org/reports/settlements/2004/execsum.pdf.
21. Retrieved March 10, 2004 from http://www.state.wv.us/governor/stateofstate2003/2003legislation/summaries/restructure.doc.
22. Retrieved March 10, 2004 from http://www.governing.com/articles/8reorg.htm.
23. Retrieved March 10, 2004 from http://www.psych-health.com/arnold01.htm.
24. See http://www.reason.org/.
25. Minnesota and Texas eliminated certain sale tax
exemptions related to designated industries. Georgia
and West Virginia sanctioned “sales tax
holidays.”
References
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D. (2002, October). The state fiscal crisis and
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University. Data from NASBO, Summer 2002.
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Eggers, W. (2002, July). “Show me the money:
Budget-cutting strategies for cash-strapped
states.” New York, NY: American Legislative
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Young, R. (2000). A guide to the general assembly
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About
the Author
Richard
D. Young, BA, MA, is director of governmental
research with the Institute for Public Service and
Policy Research at the University of South Carolina.
He conducts research on a myriad of public policy
and public administration topics relating to state
and local governments. Mr. Young can be reached at
young-richard@sc.edu.
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